Talbot Mills
1. Business / Trading Name: Talbot Mills Research Limited (trading as Talbot Mills Research). Formerly incorporated as Talbot Mills Limited (until Jul 2021). Often referred to as Talbot Mills Group, especially in connection with its sister consulting firm under the Anacta public affairs network. Predecessor entity was UMR Research Limited (formerly Insight Research and UMR Insight).
2. Company Number: 8080842 (New Zealand Companies Office registration).
3. NZBN (New Zealand Business Number): 9429048522670.
4. Entity Type: New Zealand Limited Company (privately held).
5. Business Classification: Listed under “Business consultant service” (industry code M696205) on the NZBN register. In practice, operates as a market research and polling firm with a focus on political and corporate research.
6. Industry Category: Research and Public Affairs. The company falls within the research services industry, specialising in market and opinion polling, and is part of a broader public affairs and lobbying group (the Anacta Group) spanning government relations, campaigns, and strategic communications. (Oversight tools classify it under financial services due to its network linkages, but its actual operations are in research and polling.)
7. Year Founded: 2020 (incorporated 12 August 2020). Historical context: Talbot Mills was effectively a rebranding and restructuring of UMR Research, a firm originally founded in 1987 that operated for over three decades before being removed from the register in June 2022. Thus, while Talbot Mills as a legal entity dates from 2020, it inherited UMR’s legacy (personnel, clients, and role as political pollster) established in the late 1980s.
8. Addresses:
Registered Office: Baker Tilly Staples Rodway Waikato, Level 3, Building E, Union Square, 192 Anglesea Street, Hamilton 3204, New Zealand. (This is the accounting firm address for legal registration purposes in Hamilton.)
Service Address: (same as registered office above).
Principal Office Locations: Wellington and Auckland. Talbot Mills operates out of Level 10, 117 Lambton Quay, Wellington 6011, and Suite 305, 48 Greys Avenue, Auckland 1010 for its New Zealand activities. It also lists an Australian office at Level 12, 200 Mary St, Brisbane, QLD 4000, reflecting its trans-Tasman integration. (The Wellington address was previously UMR’s head office, underscoring continuity from UMR to Talbot Mills.)
9. Website URL: https://talbotmillsresearch.co.nz/ – Official company website.
10. LinkedIn URL: https://www.linkedin.com/company/talbot-mills-research – Company LinkedIn page (which provides an overview of services and lists Wellington as headquarters).
11. Company Hub NZ URL: Company Hub profile – https://www.companyhub.nz/companyDetails.cfm?nzbn=9429048522670 (aggregated corporate data). (Note: Company Hub NZ is a third-party site; the official Companies Office entry is provided below.)
12. NZ Companies Office URL: https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/8080842
13. Social Media URLs:
Twitter (X): https://twitter.com/talbotmills – Official account on X (Twitter), branded as Talbot Mills Research.
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/talbotmillsresearch – Company Facebook page (minimal presence).
Note: The company’s social media activity is low-key; its Twitter account primarily shares research insights and media mentions, and the Facebook page is not actively maintained.
14. Ultimate Holding Company: Anacta Holdings New Zealand Limited (Company #8217435). Talbot Mills Research Ltd is 100% owned by Anacta Holdings NZ, which is the New Zealand arm of the trans-Tasman Anacta Group. Anacta NZ was incorporated in Aug 2021 as a holding company for Talbot Mills and related consulting ventures. (No further parent above Anacta NZ; Anacta NZ is jointly owned by its NZ and Australian principals – see shareholders below.)
15. Key Shareholders: The holding structure is multi-tiered: Talbot Mills Research is wholly owned by Anacta Holdings NZ (as noted above). In turn, Anacta Holdings NZ’s shares are split evenly three ways:
Talbot Ashby Family Trustees Ltd – 33.33%. (This is a NZ entity representing David Talbot’s family trust interest. David Ashby Talbot is the principal, and this stake makes him the single largest individual beneficiary of Talbot Mills.)
Odette Holdings Qld Pty Ltd – 33.33%. (Australian entity based in Queensland. This is linked to David Nelson, an Australian political consultant; see Leadership below. ACN 633893768, registered in Oxenford QLD – likely associated with Nelson’s interests.)
Elm Assets Pty Ltd – 33.33%. (Australian entity based in Queensland, ACN 633106457. This is linked to Evan Moorhead, former Queensland Labor Party secretary – see Leadership. The address (Annerley, QLD) and directorships tie to Moorhead.)
Effective control: These three equal shareholders indicate a partnership between David Talbot (NZ pollster) and two Australian Labor-aligned strategists (David Nelson and Evan Moorhead), reflecting Talbot Mills’ integration into a larger Australasian influence network.
16. Leadership:
David Arthur Talbot – Co-founder and Director of Talbot Mills Research. He is the managing principal and lead pollster. Talbot has a background as a Labour Party activist and ministerial adviser (to Hon. Pete Hodgson and Marian Hobbs in the 2000s). He managed Labour’s 2014 election campaign and became pollster and strategy adviser to Prime Ministers Jacinda Ardern and Chris Hipkins. Under Talbot’s leadership, the firm’s research programmes have been deeply embedded in Labour’s political strategy. He also spearheads corporate research projects and international expansion, having worked on Australian Labor campaigns (e.g. advising during Anthony Albanese’s 2022 federal election win and Dan Andrews’ Victorian re-election). Talbot is widely regarded as the “pollster-in-chief” for NZ’s centre-left.
Stephen Guy Mills – Co-founder and (until 2024) Executive Director of Talbot Mills Research. Stephen Mills co-founded UMR in the 1980s and was its longtime CEO. A former senior adviser to Labour PM David Lange (1980s) and Deputy PM Helen Clark (1989) , Mills is a veteran Labour-aligned strategist. He brought decades of political and issues management experience to the firm . Although Stephen Mills ceased being a legal director of the company in mid-2024 (retired from the board) , he remains associated in a senior counsel role. Media still refer to him as an executive of Talbot Mills and he frequently appears as a political commentator, always disclosed as “from Talbot Mills, Labour’s pollster”.
Evan Moorhead – Director of Anacta Holdings NZ (since 2021) and Managing Director of Anacta’s Australian operations. Moorhead is a former Queensland state Labor MP and was State Secretary (campaign director) of Queensland Labor from 2014–2020. He joined forces with Talbot and Mills via Anacta, bringing high-level lobbying expertise. (Notably, Moorhead’s lobbying activities in Queensland have been significant enough that the QLD government placed a temporary ban on him contacting ministers due to concerns over insider influence in 2022 .) Moorhead helps shape Talbot Mills’ trans-Tasman strategy and is involved in client campaigns, especially those with political or regulatory angles in Australia.
David Nelson – Director of Talbot Mills Research Ltd (appointed 2022) and of Anacta NZ. Nelson is an Australian lobbyist and former Labor adviser, based in Brisbane. He has worked alongside Moorhead on campaigns and corporate clients. Nelson’s role in the leadership is to bridge Australian client interests with the NZ operation. (He too was encompassed in the Queensland lobbyist ban alongside Moorhead , indicating his prominence in political lobbying circles.) Nelson often liaises on research projects that span NZ and Australia.
Other Key Staff: Thomas Butt – Director of Data Science (expert in quantitative methods and statistics); Rosa Sottile – Research Director (leads qualitative research and campaigns, based in Australia); Kim Lyster – Finance Manager. These individuals form the next tier of management overseeing project delivery. The overall leadership ethos is set by Talbot and Mills, with Moorhead and Nelson ensuring alignment with Anacta’s wider strategy.
17. Staff: The firm operates with a small, specialised team. According to LinkedIn, it has between 2–10 employees. The core team includes the directors mentioned above and several research analysts. Because of its size, Talbot Mills often works in partnership with affiliated consultants for broader projects (see Affiliations below). Many staff are veterans of the market research industry or have political backgrounds. Notable employees (past and present) include Andrea Kan – former UMR Director who co-founded a separate firm (AK Research) in 2020 but remains a close affiliate, and Gavin White – a senior researcher who was often the public face of UMR’s polling (especially in the 2010s). Staff expertise ranges from public opinion polling and focus groups to data analytics and strategic communications, reflecting the firm’s dual focus on research and advice. The company also draws on a network of contractors for fieldwork (survey panel providers, etc.) and collaborates with sister companies for campaign execution.
18. Staff with Previous Government Roles: Talbot Mills’ leadership is composed of political insiders turned consultants. For example, David Talbot worked in the New Zealand Government (as a ministerial adviser in the Helen Clark era). Stephen Mills was a Prime Minister’s adviser in the 1980s . Their Australian partners have even more direct political resumes: Evan Moorhead was a Member of Queensland Parliament (2006–2012) and later Queensland Labor Party secretary (effectively running Labor’s election campaigns). David Nelson has been a ministerial adviser in Queensland and a campaign strategist (his exact government roles are less public, but his inclusion in high-level lobbying restrictions implies a history of political staffing) . Additionally, Andrew Kirton – though not a staff member of Talbot Mills per se – led Anacta’s NZ lobbying arm and had been the Labour Party’s General Secretary (2016–2018) before moving into lobbying. Kirton’s case is a prominent “revolving door” instance: he resigned from Anacta to become Prime Minister Hipkins’ Chief of Staff in 2023. This revolving door pattern highlights how many of Talbot Mills’ key people have oscillated between government roles and private sector influence roles. Such movements give the firm unparalleled networks in political circles, but also raise conflict-of-interest concerns.
19. Past Employees: Given Talbot Mills’ recent formation, “past employees” largely refers to staff of its predecessor UMR Research and those who left during the transition. Andrea Ruth Kan is a prime example – a longtime UMR director (appointed 2007) who did not join Talbot Mills formally, instead founding AK Research in 2020. Andrea Kan had led many government and corporate research projects at UMR (e.g. campaigns for the Electricity Authority and the asset sales IPO programme) , and her departure marked a shift in UMR’s structure. Some UMR project managers and analysts likely moved on or were absorbed into Talbot Mills’ network or affiliated enterprises. Overall, the firm’s talent pipeline is closely tied to the Labour Party ecosystem; many past associates have gone on to roles in government or advocacy, and vice versa.
20. Clients: Talbot Mills’ client roster spans political, public sector, corporate, and non-profit sectors. Known and disclosed clients include:
Political Party: The New Zealand Labour Party (Talbot Mills is the Labour Government’s official polling firm, providing party internals and strategic advice). It has worked on Labour’s election campaigns and leadership polling for years (inherited from UMR’s role for previous Labour leaders). On the Australian side, Talbot Mills (via Anacta) has worked with the Australian Labor Party – the firm was “involved in Anthony Albanese’s federal and Dan Andrews’ Victorian wins” (providing polling/insights).
Government agencies and SOEs: (Historically under UMR) e.g. the Electricity Authority (for the “What’s My Number” power savings campaign); the Treasury and Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (UMR did public attitude research on asset sales in 2012 for the Mixed Ownership Model IPOs of state power companies). Talbot Mills continues to occasionally secure government research contracts – though details are not always public, it is known to have produced research for policy development (for instance, it supplied data to the Helen Clark Foundation for a report on social cohesion).
Unions and Advocacy Groups: Several unions and issue-based coalitions commission Talbot Mills for polling to support their causes. E tū Union (NZ’s largest private-sector union) hired Talbot Mills to poll public support for retaining the Living Wage in government contracts. The Maritime Union of NZ commissioned a Talbot Mills poll on public support for rail-enabled Cook Strait ferries (which was covered in media). Public Housing Futures, a housing advocacy group, commissioned a Talbot Mills poll on state house building in 2025. It’s Our Auckland, a civic group, commissioned a poll on public views of selling council assets (Auckland Port/Airport) . These engagements show the firm’s reach into advocacy campaigns.
Non-profits and NGOs: World Vision New Zealand engaged Talbot Mills to run a nationwide poll on modern slavery in supply chains (to bolster the case for a Modern Slavery Act). The survey found overwhelming public support, which World Vision used in its lobbying efforts. Similarly, health charities have used Talbot Mills/UMR research – e.g. a Smokefree coalition survey by Talbot Mills was lodged with the National Library in 2022 (indicating Talbot Mills did polling on smokefree laws public opinion).
Corporates and Industry Bodies: While many corporate clients remain confidential, some are evident. Fonterra (the giant dairy co-op) is referenced in a testimonial for Talbot Mills’ Stickybeak platform . Large companies and industry associations in sectors like infrastructure, energy, transport, primary industries, and finance are mentioned as clients in a broad sense. For example, Talbot Mills (via Anacta) represents alcohol industry players (Asahi, Lion Breweries in NZ/Australia) in lobbying contexts. It also likely serves major state-owned enterprises or utilities on public sentiment work.
Media/Polling Publication: Unlike competitors, Talbot Mills does not regularly publish public polls under its own name except when commissioned by a client for release. However, its political polls often leak or are referenced in media: NZ Herald and Newstalk ZB have reported on “Talbot Mills polls” concerning party vote and issues when those results circulate at the political level. (Talbot Mills itself doesn’t have a media client like TV networks, but its data does enter the public domain via secondary channels.)
Client Confidentiality: Talbot Mills generally operates behind closed doors, with many clients not publicly disclosed. Its primary public client is the ruling party (Labour), which by itself is significant, and otherwise clients become known mainly when they choose to release poll results.
21. Industries / Sectors Represented: Based on known clients and Talbot Mills’ own statements, the firm has experience in:
Politics & Government – Electioneering, policy and issue polling, public sector research.
Infrastructure & Transport – (e.g. polling on public transport, ferries, regional infrastructure needs).
Energy & Primary Industries – (e.g. electricity campaigns, dairy industry, climate-related attitudes).
Financial Services – (Some network classification lists “Financial and Insurance Services” due to corporate linkages, and potentially work for banks/insurers on reputation research).
Housing & Urban Development – (state housing policy, urban asset ownership polls).
Labour & Employment – (wage issues, trade union matters).
Health & Social Issues – (smoking legislation, modern slavery, fairness and social cohesion).
Consumer Goods & Alcohol – (beverage container recycling lobbying, alcohol industry).
Telecommunications & Tech – (not public, but given breadth, possibly telecom or tech firms for consumer sentiment).
In summary, Talbot Mills covers public policy-heavy sectors and regulated industries, often where public opinion is a key part of the strategy to influence outcomes. Its dual specialisation in political polling and corporate reputation research lets it operate at the nexus of politics, business, and public policy.
22. Publicly Disclosed Engagements: Talbot Mills and its predecessors have occasionally appeared in official disclosures or public reports:
Parliamentary Inquiries: Talbot Mills’ research is sometimes cited in submissions to Parliament. For instance, the 2023 consultation on modern slavery legislation included the World Vision poll by Talbot Mills as evidence of public support.
Official Information Act (OIA) disclosures: Political polling for government or the PM’s office, if taxpayer-funded, can be subject to OIA. It was revealed, for example, that the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet had engaged UMR/Talbot Mills for research during COVID-19 (prompting opposition questions on using a partisan pollster for government work) – though details were scant and often withheld for confidentiality.
Electoral Commission filings: If the Labour Party uses parliamentary funding or party funds to pay for Talbot Mills, those amounts might be noted in party expense returns (though lumped under polling, not itemized publicly). No independent filings by Talbot Mills are required since it’s not a lobbying firm under any register.
Media Interviews and Releases: The firm rarely issues press releases itself, but clients do. Notably, press releases on Scoop.co.nz have explicitly named Talbot Mills as the pollster for advocacy campaigns (e.g. housing poll in 2025 by Public Housing Futures, which openly credited “a Talbot Mills poll” in its first line). Similarly, World Vision NZ’s website credited Talbot Mills in its announcement of poll results. These disclosures give a window into Talbot Mills’ engagements.
Political news coverage: When internal party polling data leaks or is shared with caucus, news outlets often report it with attribution. For example, Talbot Mills’ polling results on party vote and leader ratings have been reported in NZ Herald and Newsroom during election seasons, usually sourced to “Labour’s internal poll” by Talbot Mills. This unofficial exposure is a hallmark of Talbot Mills’ influence; although not formally public, its work heavily informs political narratives.
Australian context: The Australian arms (Anacta Strategies) have to comply with lobbying disclosure in some states. In Queensland, lobbying contact reports would show meetings by Anacta (Moorhead/Nelson) with ministers (one such OIA in NZ revealed Kirton emailing ministerial staff to set up meetings for corporate clients). The scrapping of the container deposit scheme in NZ, for example, became public via RNZ’s investigative report which disclosed Anacta’s involvement on behalf of beverage companies. That report effectively publicized Talbot Mills/Anacta’s lobbying engagement in that policy area.
23. Affiliations: Talbot Mills is part of a wider network of affiliated organisations:
Anacta Group: Talbot Mills Research is a division of the Anacta Group, a trans-Tasman public affairs conglomerate. Sister companies include Anacta Consulting (NZ and Australia) – lobbying and government relations firms, and Anacta Strategies UK – a London-based public affairs branch. The Anacta affiliation means Talbot Mills can complement its research with lobbying, campaigns, and PR execution through other group entities. This affiliation is touted on the website (“proudly part of the Anacta group”).
Stickybeak: An online polling platform co-founded by David Talbot (launched around 2019). Stickybeak (stickybeak.co) is an automated survey tool for quick consumer feedback and has been used in partnership with media outlets. Talbot Mills often uses Stickybeak’s technology for digital data collection. The Oversight Solutions network data connects Stickybeak to the same group. Essentially, Stickybeak is an affiliated venture aiming to modernize polling; Talbot Mills’ principals have a stake in it and it’s used for some client work.
AK Research: A boutique research firm led by Andrea and Alice Kan. AK Research explicitly notes it is “closely affiliated with Talbot Mills Consulting, with both agencies born out of UMR Research”. This suggests a collaborative relationship – AK can tap Talbot Mills’ expertise and vice versa. In practice, AK Research (with qualitative focus) and Talbot Mills (quantitative and political focus) likely partner on projects requiring additional capacity or specific skill sets. The shared UMR heritage and ongoing professional links (Andrea Kan’s long history with Stephen Mills) make this a key affiliation in the NZ research industry.
Research Association of New Zealand (RANZ): Talbot Mills (and previously UMR) are members of RANZ, adhering to industry codes of practice. The AK Research site shows RANZ membership, and Talbot Mills as a lineal descendant likely maintains that membership for professional standards.
Media and Polling Community: Though a private firm, Talbot Mills has informal ties in the polling community. Stephen Mills has a collegial relationship with other pollsters (he appears alongside right-leaning pollster David Farrar of Curia in media forums). The company’s data occasionally features in academic or think-tank reports (e.g. contributions to the Helen Clark Foundation) and Talbot has presented at conferences on research. These represent professional affiliations that amplify its influence.
Political Networks: By virtue of its work, Talbot Mills is affiliated with Labour Party structures (e.g. participating in campaign strategy sessions, war rooms during elections) and with ALP networks in Australia. Andrew Kirton’s involvement exemplified an overlap between the firm and party hierarchy. Such affiliations, while not formal, are crucial to note in an influence register: the firm is embedded in the Labour-aligned ecosystem of consultants and advisors.
24. Sponsorships / Collaborations: No public record of corporate sponsorships by Talbot Mills (it does not, for example, sponsor events or charities under its brand). However, it collaborates in projects with non-partisan groups: e.g., Talbot Mills collaborated with the Helen Clark Foundation and Māngai Pāho on a 2022 study about social cohesion and misinformation, supplying survey data at a discounted rate (as acknowledged in a Facebook post by the foundation). This indicates a form of pro-bono or subsidized collaboration on research for public good. Additionally, Stephen Mills and David Talbot have occasionally given talks (such as to universities or industry seminars) about polling trends – these could be seen as thought leadership collaborations. The firm tends to keep a low profile, so any sponsorship is likely indirect (through the Anacta group or personal contributions by principals rather than under the Talbot Mills name).
Events (Organised by this Organisation): There is no evidence of Talbot Mills Research holding public events or conferences in its own name. It is not an events-focused entity; rather, it works behind the scenes. Internal events (like focus group sessions, private client briefings, and election night war-room operations) are a part of its work but not public. The closest public “events” are the webinars or panel discussions where its principals speak. For example, Stephen Mills regularly appears on RNZ’s Nine to Noon Politics segment (as a commentator representing Talbot Mills). David Talbot has appeared at campaign debrief events for the Labour Party. These are more media or party events than Talbot Mills events. In summary, Talbot Mills does not publicly host events – its influence is exerted through research deliverables and closed-door strategy sessions, not public forums or sponsorship of functions.
25. Political Donations: No registered political donations have been made by Talbot Mills Research Limited or its associated entities in New Zealand, according to electoral disclosures. The firm’s influence is exerted via services, not direct monetary contributions. Neither Talbot nor Mills appear individually in public donor lists above the NZ Electoral Commission’s reporting threshold. (It’s worth noting that providing discounted services or polling to a political party could be considered a kind of in-kind contribution, but if it occurs, it is not transparently disclosed.) The Integrity Institute’s research has pointed out that instead of donating, principals often obtain influence through their roles – e.g. Mills and Talbot get privileged access as Labour’s pollsters, obviating the need for donations.. Overall, traditional donations are not the route of influence here – Talbot Mills’ information and advice are its currency.
26. Controversies: Several notable controversies and criticisms surround Talbot Mills (and its UMR predecessor):
Lack of Transparency / “Shadow” Lobbying: Talbot Mills’ dual role as Labour’s internal pollster and as a consultant to private clients has drawn criticism about transparency. The firm’s research for government (when commissioned) is not always released, and as a private company it isn’t subject to OIA by default (unless a government department hires it). This has led to claims of a “shadow advisory” influence. Media commentators have highlighted that firms like Talbot Mills operate away from public scrutiny while potentially steering policy behind closed doors.
Revolving Door and Conflicts: The appointment of Andrew Kirton, former Anacta NZ director, as the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff in 2023 was controversial. Kirton had literally been lobbying against a government regulation (the container deposit scheme) on behalf of corporate clients up to the week before joining the PM’s office. After his hire, that environmental policy was abruptly scrapped by the government. Critics pointed to this as a stark example of regulatory capture and conflict of interest – effectively, Talbot Mills/Anacta’s lobbyist joined the government and the client’s desired outcome was achieved. Although Kirton claimed he recused himself, the perception of undue influence was strong and damaging (it fed into the government subsequently shelving lobbying transparency reforms).
UMR’s Dissolution and Debts: When UMR Research Ltd was removed from the companies register in 2022, questions arose about its financial state. It’s not fully clear if UMR was solvently wound up or sold off assets to the new entity. Any unresolved obligations or debts could be a minor controversy, though no public scandal on this emerged. (UMR had taken a COVID wage subsidy for staff in 2020, according to hints in industry chatter, but if so, it was not widely reported nor returned, unlike some firms that repaid subsidies after recovering – the absence of disclosure here is notable).
Leaked Polls Influencing Markets: At times, internal Talbot Mills polls have leaked and caused public stir. For example, in 2023, a Talbot Mills poll showing a spike for NZ First was reported in the Herald, causing political speculation. David Talbot later said that information was erroneous or outdated. Such incidents raise concerns about selective leaking and misinformation – essentially, when private polls enter the public sphere without full methodology disclosure, it can mislead. National Party figures have also complained that Labour’s use of Talbot Mills polling during COVID-19 response blurred the line between health policy and partisan strategy (accusing the government of being “poll-driven” on pandemic decisions).
Queensland Lobbyist Ban: As noted, the Queensland government in 2022 banned Talbot Mills’ Australian directors (Moorhead and Nelson) from lobbying ministers until after 2024 . This was part of a crackdown on the incestuous relationship between campaigners and lobbyists. While this is an Australian state issue, it directly involves Talbot Mills’ parent network. The fact that the Premier felt the need to bar them underscores how controversial their influence had become in that jurisdiction.
Public Backlash to Poll Influence: New Zealand media at times push back on the outsized influence of polls. In May 2024, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins derided media’s “frothy” coverage of polls, even as his own party relied on Talbot Mills numbers internally. This kind of discourse highlights a paradox: Talbot Mills’ polling is extremely influential yet its accuracy and role can come under fire, especially when results differ from public polls like 1News-Verian or Newshub-Reid Research. Any high-profile polling miss (though Talbot Mills has prided itself on accuracy) would become a controversy – for example, if internal polling overly reassured a party and proved wrong.
In summary, controversies mostly center on ethical concerns (transparency, conflicts) and on the firm’s behind-the-scenes power. Talbot Mills itself keeps a low public profile, so controversies attach to its principals and clients rather than the company making public missteps.
27. Other Information of Note:
Talbot Mills Research is effectively the successor to one of New Zealand’s most influential polling companies (UMR). UMR had advised every Labour Prime Minister from the 1980s to 2010s, and even did work for other parties (reports suggest UMR did some polling for NZ First in the past, and occasional projects for National-led governments on policy issues). This legacy carries into Talbot Mills. The firm’s insights often inform Cabinet decisions and election strategies at the highest level, despite no statutory role – a point of interest for any observer of NZ politics.
The firm’s transnational links mean overseas influence intersects with NZ politics. Australian Labor’s campaign techniques and messages may filter into NZ through Talbot Mills, and vice versa. The Anacta structure also implies that data and tactics are shared across the Tasman, giving Talbot Mills broader perspective but also raising sovereignty questions (e.g., an Australian entity owns 2/3 of the ultimate holding company; some may question if NZ political data is accessible to those foreign shareholders).
Talbot Mills operates in a duopoly in NZ political polling: Labour trusts Talbot Mills; National trusts Curia (run by David Farrar). These two private firms wield significant influence within their respective political camps. Unlike public pollsters (Ipsos, Kantar etc.), they are not constrained by publishing standards or transparency. This dynamic is notable in understanding NZ’s political landscape – a lot of strategy hinges on what Talbot Mills tells Labour behind closed doors, and there’s no independent audit of that. It’s an asymmetric influence compared to countries where party polling is supplemented by think-tank or academic polling.
UMR/Talbot Mills has occasionally been embroiled in intellectual debates, such as how to measure public opinion accurately in the modern era. After the 2019 Australian federal election polling miss (where public pollsters predicted a Labor win that didn’t happen), Stephen Mills co-authored analyses reflecting on polling methodology. This shows the firm’s principals are thought leaders in the research community. Indeed, Talbot Mills touts that they have been “the most accurate pollsters in many Australasian races”, implicitly contrasting their private polling to sometimes errant media polls.
Spin-off Ventures: Beyond Stickybeak, Talbot Mills principals have interests in data analytics and possibly AI tools for sentiment analysis. The environment is evolving, and Talbot Mills has signaled it employs advanced techniques (data science, interactive survey methods) . This may set it apart from traditional lobby firms – it is more analytics-driven.
Involvement in Select Committees: While not directly lobbying, Talbot Mills evidence often finds its way into parliamentary debates. For example, MPs have cited “a poll by Talbot Mills” during question time or select committee hearings to challenge or support a policy (e.g., opposition MPs citing a Talbot Mills poll showing public disapproval of government direction, or vice versa). This indirect influence on parliamentary record is noteworthy.
Brand Identities: The name “Talbot Mills” itself combines the two founders’ surnames, but interestingly it echoes historic “Mills & Talbot” type naming. There was no actual entity called “Talbot Mills Group” registered, but the term is used informally to encompass Talbot Mills Research and its consulting affiliations (essentially the NZ branch of Anacta). Occasionally media or critics might refer to “the Talbot Mills crowd” as shorthand for Labour’s polling and advisory inner circle.
Overall, Talbot Mills occupies a unique niche: part political pollster, part lobbying nexus, part corporate research firm. Its activities are an essential study for understanding unregulated political influence in New Zealand.
28. Recipient of Wage Subsidy Scheme: No, not as “Talbot Mills Research Ltd”. The company was formed after the first COVID-19 wage subsidies (which were mostly in early 2020). Its predecessor UMR Research did operate during the pandemic; however, there is no public record confirming UMR’s receipt of the wage subsidy. (UMR is not listed among major recipients in media reports, and a search of the MSD wage subsidy database yields no obvious entry for UMR or Talbot Mills.). It appears UMR either did not qualify or chose not to draw the subsidy, or any subsidy received was below publicity thresholds. By contrast, many PR/lobby firms did take subsidies, which became controversial when their business rebounded. In UMR’s case, if it did quietly take some support in 2020, it had dissolved by 2022 without comment. Talbot Mills itself has not claimed any wage subsidies in NZ’s later COVID support rounds (given its establishment post-lockdown and likely steady political work through government contracts).
Conclusion: Talbot Mills Research is a privately held polling and consulting firm rooted in NZ’s political fabric, with a complex ownership linking NZ and Australian Labor networks. It operates from the shadows – no flashy public profile, but a powerhouse of data and influence for those in the know.
Sources
[1] Network profile for TALBOT MILLS RESEARCH LIMITED, Oversight Solutions – Company Network Data (2024), https://oversightsolutions.co.nz/profile/TALBOT-MILLS-RESEARCH-LIMITED
[2] View Company Summary – Talbot Mills Research Ltd, NZ Companies Office (companies-register), Company No. 8080842 (last updated Feb 2025), https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/co/8080842
[3] UMR RESEARCH LIMITED – NZ Business Directory Profile, NZWAO.com – Company listing (updated Aug 2022), https://www.nzwao.com/companies/umr-research-limited/
[4] Claire Trevett, Meet Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ inner circle – the people he relies on, NZ Herald (2023), https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/meet-chris-hipkins-inner-circle-the-people-he-relies-on/323SK7BG4RGBBE63WH2LY54AOU/ (Excerpt on David Talbot & Stephen Mills)
[5] Nine To Noon Politics – Mills & Morten, Radio New Zealand (RNZ) Podcast (25 Oct 2021), https://www.rnz.co.nz/podcast/monday-politics/2021 (Pollster used by Labour mention)
[6] Talbot Mills Research – Official Website (About page, 2023), TalbotMillsResearch.co.nz, https://talbotmillsresearch.co.nz/ (Company description and Anacta affiliation)
[7] Talbot Mills Research – Team Profiles, TalbotMillsResearch.co.nz (2023), https://talbotmillsresearch.co.nz/ (Leadership bios for David Talbot & Stephen Mills)
[8] Talbot Mills Research | LinkedIn Overview, LinkedIn Company Page (retrieved 2025), https://www.linkedin.com/company/talbot-mills-research (Services, sectors, and locations)
[9] AK Research – About Us, AKResearch.co.nz (2022), https://www.akresearch.co.nz/about (Affiliation with Talbot Mills Consulting, UMR origins)
[10] AK Research – Team, AKResearch.co.nz (2022), https://www.akresearch.co.nz/team (Andrea Kan bio and experience)
[11] Press Release: 72% Think Government Should Build State Housing at Scale – Public Housing Futures (Talbot Mills poll cited), Scoop News (5 Mar 2025), https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2503/S00018.htm
[12] World Vision New Zealand, 8 out of 10 Kiwis support new law against modern slavery (Talbot Mills poll cited), WorldVision.org.nz (2 Mar 2023), https://www.worldvision.org.nz/about/media/new-poll-shows-8-out-of-10-new-zealanders-support/
[13] Katie Bradford, Aucklanders sceptical of mayor’s ambitious plans, poll shows (Talbot Mills poll for It’s Our Auckland), 1News – TVNZ (26 Mar 2024), https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/26/aucklanders-sceptical-of-mayors-ambitious-plans-poll-shows/
[14] Azaria Howell, Poll: Do Kiwis believe Kim Dotcom should be extradited to the US? (Talbot Mills survey findings), Newstalk ZB News (1 Oct 2024), https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/kim-dotcom-survey-shows-46-of-kiwis-believe-former-internet-mogul-should-be-extradited-to-us-23-say-no/
[15] RNZ News, New E tū union poll shows most Kiwis oppose removing living wage from government contracts (Talbot Mills poll details), Radio NZ (10 Apr 2025), https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/556581/new-e-tu-union-poll-shows-most-kiwis-oppose-removing-living-wage-from-government-contracts
[16] Hayden Donnell, Critics foam over frothy poll coverage (Mediawatch analysis of poll-driven politics), RNZ (5 May 2024), https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/mediawatch/audio/2018936865/critics-foam-over-frothy-poll-coverage
[17] Guyon Espiner, PM’s chief of staff led lobbying firm that fought against reforms now binned by Hipkins, RNZ News Investigative (21 Mar 2023), https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/lobbying/486382/ (Anacta/Talbot Mills lobbying on container scheme)
[18] Australian Associated Press, Queensland bans three lobbyists from contacting cabinet ministers (Coaldrake review fallout – Moorhead, Milner, Nelson), The Guardian (4 Jul 2022), https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/04/queensland-bans-three-lobbyists-from-contacting-cabinet-ministers
[19] David Farrar, Talbot Mills Archives, Curia Market Research blog (various entries 2019–2024), https://www.curia.co.nz/tag/talbot-mills/ (mentions of Talbot Mills polls in media)
[20] Bryce Edwards, Political Roundup: Andrew Kirton’s past experience shines a bright light on NZ lobbying, NZ Herald (Opinion, 22 Mar 2023), https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/bryce-edwards-political-roundup-andrew-kirtons-past-experience-shines-a-bright-light-on-nz-lobbying/ (context on Anacta and lobbying issues)
Spot anything in this entry that is wrong? Please either leave a comment at the end or email, in confidence: bryce@democracyproject.nz