Trump Vs Harris – how would New Zealanders vote?

If New Zealanders could vote in the US Presidential election, most would choose Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. However, they appear to be warming to Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Two different polling companies asked the hypothetical question of New Zealander’s voting preference for the US President this month. The first to be published was by David Farrar’s Curia Research. The overall results were:

• Harris: 59%

• Trump: 25%

• Unsure: 17%

Today, the results of a Talbot Mills poll were published by the Herald:

• Harris: 55%

• Trump: 21%

• Would not vote; Unsure: 20%

The two polls use slightly different methodologies, which helps explain the slightly different results. Notably, however, both polls had a sample size of around 1000, and both surveys were done around the first week of August.

The level of support for Trump is much lower than in the US. Yet, the proportion of Trump supporters is dramatically higher than it used to be. Back in 2016, when Trump ran successfully against Democrat Hillary Clinton, a Newshub-Reid Research poll showed the following results:

• Clinton: 76%

• Trump: 9%

• Don’t know: 15%

New Zealand is a nation of Democrats

It’s hardly surprising that Kamala Harris is strongly supported in New Zealand. Those who study or compare the politics of the two countries often observe that the US is generally to the right of New Zealand and that the Democrat Party is actually closer to the National Party in its policies.

The Republicans and their presidential candidates are generally seen as to the right of National, more in the territory of Act on economics, and perhaps NZ First in terms of social policy. It’s therefore not uncommon for Labour and National party politicians and activists to express a preference for the Democrats over the Republicans.

Much of this dynamic is reflected in the two New Zealand surveys, once you break down the responses by the respondent’s domestic party choice. Those favouring more leftwing parties here are more favourable to Harris.

Here are the Curia poll results, expressed in terms of party support, with the proportion supporting Harris minus the proportion supporting Trump:

• Greens: +85%

• Te Pati Māori: +81%

• Labour: +56%

• National: +20%

• NZ First: -8%

• Act: -10%

The results in today’s Talbot Mills poll were similar (except for Te Pati Māori and Act):

• Greens: +58%

• Labour: +51%

• National: +29%

• Te Pati Māori: +27%

• Act: +15%

• NZ First: -13%

Most notably, the two polls show that Labour, National and Green voters favour Harris, while unsurprisingly, NZ First voters are more likely to favour a vote for Trump.

NZ women, older people, and in cities are more favourable towards Harris

In terms of gender, both the Curia and Talbot Mills showed New Zealand women much more favourable to voting for Harris. Here are the voting intentions of women, as recorded by Curia, then Talbot Mills:

• Harris: 64%; 61%

• Trump: 23%; 11%

According to the two polls, men are significantly more likely to vote for Trump than women. Again, here are the figures for male support, first listing the Curia and then Talbot Mills results:

• Harris: 40%; 50%

• Trump: 36%; 31%

Those in rural areas are also much more inclined to vote for Trump. According to the Curia poll, “Harris leads Trump in cities and towns, but Trump has a narrow 4% lead amongst rural NZers.” The figures for those in rural areas are:

• Trump: 40%

• Harris: 36%

In contrast, across the towns and cities of New Zealand, according to Curia, support for Harris was around 64%, and for Trump, it was about 22%. Those polled in Christchurch, however, tended to be more favourable to Harris – 73%.

More surprisingly, the Curia poll found that Trump’s New Zealand support was greater amongst the young than the old.

Aged under 40s:

• Harris: 54%

• Trump: 31%

Aged 60+:

• Harris: 70%

• Trump: 14%

Trump’s surprisingly high support in New Zealand in 2024

Trump’s apparent growth in support since 2016 might be put down to the “bandwagon effect”. This is the theory that survey respondents are more likely to nominate a voting option if they think it is a popular option or that it has a good chance of success. There’s an emotional element of survey respondents wanting to “back a winner”. And in 2016 the New Zealand media was very dismissive of Trump’s chances of winning the presidency, with all outlets expecting an easy Clinton win. However, because Trump went on to serve as President and media coverage now takes the candidate more seriously in 2024, New Zealand survey respondents might be more ready to name him their choice.

Of course, there’s also a possibility that Trump's politics has become more popular in New Zealand since 2016. The populist or anti-Establishment mood that has created electoral earthquakes elsewhere around the world doesn’t appear to have had an impact here, yet this survey might suggest that such latent sentiments might still be growing.

The most obvious correlation between Trump and New Zealand elections can be found in the form of New Zealand First and its leader, Winston Peters. They both push populist, and particularly anti-immigration, policies and rhetoric. Notably, too, in the 2016 survey, 23% of NZ First supporters favoured Trump, but according to the two 2024 surveys – this support has jumped up: 35% of NZ First supporters would vote for Trump according to today’s Talbot Mills poll, and 51% according to the Curia poll.

But it’s worth pointing out that it’s not just NZ First voters that are more inclined to support Trump in 2024. The proportion of Labour voters favouring Trump has increased from 6% to 15%. And National voters for Trump have increased from 9% to 33%.

Finally, it’s hard to gauge how much enthusiasm New Zealanders have for what’s on offer in the US presidential election. Are so many New Zealand survey respondents picking the relatively centrist-moderate Harris out of fear of the more radical rightwing Trump? Or does Harris resonate strongly with them?

It’s worth pointing out that back in 2016 before Clinton got the Democratic nomination, there was a real chance that the nomination might go to the socialist firebrand Bernie Sanders. Interestingly, back then, when the Talbot Mills polling firm also surveyed New Zealanders on who they would prefer between Trump and Sanders, 77% chose Sanders, and only 7% preferred Trump. So, although New Zealanders might essentially be “Democrats”, they’re also open to supporting quite anti-Establishment ones as well.  

Dr Bryce Edwards

Political Analyst in Residence, Director of the Democracy Project, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington

Key Sources

Curia Research: US 2024 Presidential Election Poll

David Farrar (Patreon): Exclusive Poll: How NZers would vote in the 2024 US presidential election (paywalled)

Herald: Kiwis favour Clinton over Trump to be next United States president

Jason Walls (Herald): US election: Exclusive poll shows New Zealanders back Kamala Harris over Donald Trump for next President