NZ Politics Daily – 20 February 2024

Top “NZ Politics Daily” stories today

Below are some of the more interesting and insightful New Zealand politics items from the last 24 hours.

1) The latest 1News Verian poll shows very little change since the October election. Here’s the party vote support, and the differences since the election:

• National – 38% (steady)

• Labour – 28% (up 1%)

• Green – 12% (steady)

• ACT – 8% (down 1%)

• New Zealand First – 6% (steady)

• Te Pāti Māori – 3.7% (up 0.7%)

• The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 1.9% (down 0.1%)

For more, see Felix Desmarais’ Poll: Preferred PM plunge for Hipkins, Te Pāti Māori gets Waitangi lift

2) The most notable poll news was that preferred PM ratings – with a huge drop for Chris Hipkins since the election:

• Christopher Luxon – 25% (steady)

• Chris Hipkins – 15% (down 10%)

• Winston Peters – 6% (up 1%)

• David Seymour – 4% (steady)

• Chlöe Swarbrick – 4% (up 2%)

For more, see Felix Desmarais’ Poll: Hipkins not 'contemplating' resignation after 10% popularity drop

3) Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has come out with the announcement of tougher sanctions for those on benefits. But Herald political editor Claire Trevett says it’s more about political posing than a genuine change of policy: “Choosing to make it the centre-piece of the post-Cabinet press conference was more about pure political theatre than the substance of the move. It was not an announcement of anything new, but rather a stop-gap measure before National brings in its own newly packaged sanctions regime toward the end of the year” – see: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s ‘tough love’ welfare move is part theatre and a lot of politics (paywalled)

Trevett explains that this relatively empty political theatre made good strategic sense for National: “Talking tough about the unemployed is almost always good politics for a National Party leader and Luxon does it well, talking about ‘tough love’ and telling the young unemployed that their ‘free ride is over’. He can do it, safe in the assumption a fair chunk of voters will feel he is more than justified. Luxon even baldly identified some, saying hard-working lower and middle-income workers, whose taxes paid for the benefit system, should know the Government was not letting beneficiaries off the hook when it came to finding a job. He did not mention high-income earners - perhaps he assumed it was obvious. It also allowed Luxon to set the agenda on the issue ahead of his coalition buddies, Act leader David Seymour and NZ First leader Winston Peters.”

4) More political theatre comes about from the NZ Transport Agency – more commonly known as Waka Kotahi – who were so worried about the name change of their agency under the new government that they spent $305 on new fluro orange jackets without the Waka Kotahi branding to be used by the new Prime Minister when recently opening a new road – see Amelia Wade’s Waka Kotahi bought new unbranded hi-viz jackets for PM, entourage for highway re-opening

5) “Trexit”? Is New Zealand facing its own Treaty-based version of the populist Brexit revolt? The Listener’s political columnist Danyl McLauchlan thinks so, arguing in his weekly column that just as “Nigel Farage spent 20 years campaigning against Britain’s membership in the EU and he got there in the end” this could also happen with Act’s David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill as it represents a growing public backlash against the decades-long elite consensus on Treaty matters between Labour and National, in which the public haven’t really been consulted – see: Act’s David Seymour follows in Trump’s footsteps by saying things politicians are not supposed to (paywalled)

McLauchlan lays out how New Zealand’s zeitgeist issue of Treaty polarisation parallels what happened in the UK where the media and a bipartisan agreement to keep an issue out of public debate eventually bubbled up: “In the 1980s and 90s, as the Treaty of Waitangi evolved as a foundational constitutional document, Labour and National reached an informal agreement that interpreting it was a role for the courts rather than Parliament. It would not be defined by politicians and it certainly wouldn’t be up for debate during election campaigns or referendums. This consensus held for more than 30 years: treaty settlements progressed across multiple changes of government, usage of te reo became widespread, acknowledgement of treaty principles became routine within public and private organisations and anger towards these things was restricted to the radical fringes. The politics of the treaty lay largely undisturbed, treasure half-buried on the ocean floor – occasionally grasped at by Winston Peters, briefly fumbled with by Don Brash – until now, when it’s been seized and held aloft by Seymour.”

And Seymour – and the seemingly growing proportion of the public that wants a say on state policies on race relations – might end up winning, against the odds: “Seymour doesn’t need traditional media to talk to the public: he’s launching websites and churning out digital content, reaching a large constituency of voters sympathetic to his argument: that the modern interpretation of the treaty is turning the country into an ethnostate with different rights for different races. He’s winning the debate by default because National and Labour still think it’s possible to rule the entire topic out of bounds. Luxon didn’t mention Seymour’s bill in his Waitangi speech: all he could offer on the topic of the treaty was that National would honour it, whatever that means. Labour keeps calling Seymour a bigot and a racist, the same rhetorical tactic that lost the argument against Trump, Brexit and Australia’s Voice vote last year.”

6) For the latest version of New Zealand being broken, see the RNZ article by John Gerritsen about the funding crisis in universities: NZ universities facing a 'liquidity crisis' - briefing. According to information from the Tertiary Education Commission, universities and polytechnics “are relying on hostels and consultancy work to make ends meet, because teaching students is barely profitable for universities and loss-making for polytechnics”.

7) Good news on the fight to fix the supermarket duopoly problems – the Commerce Commission has launched an online tool for insiders and the public to draw attention to cartel behaviour and other nefarious activities inside the sector: “The grocery commissioner says just one anonymous tip could be enough to bring meaningful change to the country’s $25 billion sector. Launched two weeks ago, a third party-developed tool, which encrypts data, allows people to remain anonymous if they come forward with information about concerning or inappropriate behaviour in the grocery industry that may foster anti-competitive behaviour” – see Aimee Shaw’s Supermarket whistleblower tool touted as potential gamechanger (paywalled)

8) The Wellington City Council’s internal dysfunction and infighting continue to leak out like the water from the city’s pipes. The latest is communications between councillors and the mayor pointing the finger at each other for bringing the council into disrepute – see Tom Hunt’s Leaked emails reveal new spat among Wellington City councillors (paywalled)

Here’s the introduction to the news report: “Mayor Tory Whanau on Monday morning sent out a reminder to councillors ‘not to make disparaging remarks about your colleagues’ as it ‘reflects poorly on us’. Just three minutes later, councillor Diane Calvert emailed back: ‘You made this political in the first instance and quite frankly it is your actions more than any that have reflected poorly on us’. Details of the leaked spat comes just after the council sent out its 10-year plan for consultation… It started when councillor Ray Chung on Wednesday responded to a constituent concerned about reduced hours at the Karori Pool alleging Whanau was ‘nickel and diming’ in cuts but wouldn’t take a scalpel to ‘big ideological projects’… This Green Mayor and council continue to push for their ideological cycle lanes, skate parks and ‘nice to haves’ while we have leaks and potholes everywhere’.”

9) One of the most contentious issues in the council is the “corporate welfare” proposal that Mayor Tory Whanau has negotiated with multinational cinema chain Reading in which the council allegedly exchanges about $32m to Reading to help them rebuild a cinema complex. And today the Post columnist/satirist Dave Armstrong attempts to explain what has gone on: “Imagine you’re a struggling Wellington apartment owner. Your mortgage payments have skyrocketed and you’re struggling to make the council deadline for earthquake strengthening your building. It’s going to cost you half a million bucks which you don’t have. Then you get a call from the local council who want to take you out for dinner and buy you expensive bottles of wine so they can buy the land underneath your apartment. This will allow you to pay for earthquake strengthening yourself and if you want to buy back the land years down the track, no problem, it will only cost you what you sold it to the council for” – see: More than just Reading between the lines (paywalled)

Armstrong suggests the corporate welfare element of the deal shouldn’t be surprising for Wellingtonians: “Usually, it would be the party wanting to sell the property doing the wining and dining, not the buyer. But this is Wellington, the town where limos were put on by John Key’s government to transport Hollywood executives during the Hobbit kerfuffle. It’s the town where in 2013 the council lent an Australian company $300,000 to set up a call centre. The company soon went bust having only paid back half the money. The whole murky Reading deal has been cloaked in secrecy, which is why the council leadership were so furious when some councillors dared to publicly comment. Hell hath no fury like a bad plan uncovered. The expensive code of conduct complaint revealed little. Most Wellingtonians are more concerned about the Aqualamity with Wellington Water, and proposed cuts to their libraries and swimming pools.”

At the moment, the deal seems to have the support of most of the Labour and Green councillors, and Armstrong poses unanswered questions about the dodgy deal and challenges them to ditch it: “Will they vote against the neo-liberal madness of bailing out a struggling overseas company to possibly strengthen its central city eyesore, when water is continuing to leak and library hours and swimming pools are being openly touted for the chop?”

Dr Bryce Edwards

Political Analyst in Residence, Democracy Project, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington

NZ Politics Daily – 20 February 2024

GOVERNMENT, WELFARE, ECONOMY
Danyl McLauchlan (Listener): Act’s David Seymour follows in Trump’s footsteps (paywalled)
Simon Wilson (Herald): What Christopher Luxon would say if he really was a ‘straight-talking’ leader (paywalled)
Claire Trevett (Herald): Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s ‘tough love’ welfare move is part theatre and a lot of politics (paywalled)
1News: PM slams 'perverse, obscene' job seeker situation under last govt
Adam Pearse and Thomas Coughlan (Herald): PM defends evidence behind beneficiary sanctions, Opposition labels welfare reset ‘politics of cruelty’
RNZ: Benefit sanctions: Government building 'a legacy of cruelty', critics say
Newshub: Labour, Green Party react to Government's crackdown on beneficiaries
William Hewett (Newshub): Campaigner slams Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's comments about welfare system
Jamie Ensor (Newshub): Ministry of Social Development told to use sanctions available against beneficiaries not fulfilling obligations
RNZ: Benefit sanctions to ramp up with 'work check-ins' - Minister Louise Upston
Glenn McConnell (Stuff): Government calls for the full force of benefit sanctions
1News: Govt's benefit changes: More people to receive 'work check-ins'
Anna Whyte and Thomas Manch (Post): Government starts reset of welfare system
Brent Edwards (NBR): Apply all welfare obligations, sanctions to beneficiaries: Govt (paywalled)
Mike Hosking (Newstalk ZB): The country is fragile, no pressure Luxon
Kerre Woodham (Newstalk ZB): Prime Ministers stark message must be followed with action
Michael Bassett: Challenges facing Christopher Luxon’s government
RNZ: National trying to wriggle out of promises with talk of 'fragile' economy - Chris Hipkins
RNZ: Checkpoint: Government should have been aware of fiscal situation - tax expert
Bernard Hickey (The Kākā): Is 2.8% per year population growth too much?
Herald: The Front Page: Immigration: Is New Zealand growing too fast to keep up?
Haimona Gray (Newstalk ZB): Who gets to pull up the immigration drawbridge? (paywalled)
Gregor Thompson (BusinessDesk): An autopsy of 14 years of ‘fiscal drag’ (paywalled)
Madison Reidy (Herald): Reserve Bank’s Adrian Orr fumbles the fiat bag as ‘print money’ joke goes viral (paywalled)
Rob Campbell (Newsroom): The economy is not just what’s good for commercial interests
1News: PM Luxon's Big Gay Out reception not unsafe - opposition MP
Gareth Vaughan (Interest): Podcast: Andrew Bayly on a select committee banking inquiry, Statistics NZ's challenges & more

1NEWS-VERIAN POLL, PARLIAMENT
Felix Desmarais (1News): Poll: Preferred PM plunge for Hipkins, Te Pāti Māori gets Waitangi lift
Felix Desmarais (1News): Poll: Hipkins not 'contemplating' resignation after 10% popularity drop
Toby Manhire (Spinoff): Yup, say voters, just like we told you
Chris Trotter (Democracy Project): Democracy Denied
MIchelle Hewitson (Listener): Is Celia Wade-Brown the perfect Green MP? (paywalled)
Natalia Albert: Does New Zealand need a center party?
Rob Stock (Post): Labour’s Deborah Russell’s anti-stalker bill plucked from ballot (paywalled)

TRANSPORT, INFRASTRUCTURE
Amelia Wade (Newshub): Waka Kotahi bought new unbranded hi-viz jackets for PM, entourage for highway re-opening
Georgina Campbell (Herad): Tide starts to turn on Nicola Willis over KiwiRail’s Cook Strait mega ferries
Thomas Coughlan (Herald): Part privatisation, public-private partnerships on the table as Government considers future of Wellington Port
Matthew Scott (Newsroom): KiwiRail to lobby mayor on rail freight from Auckland port
David Williams (Newsroom): (Newsroom): Fears for overbridge in transport policy ‘slash and burn’
Roeland van den Bergh (Post): Air NZ profits will fall sharply this year (paywalled)
Will Mace (NBR): Air NZ guides ‘adverse’ 2H due to competition and costs (paywalled)
Maryanne Spurdle (Newstalk ZB): Only better tech can recharge the EV revolution (paywalled)

LOCAL GOVERNMENT
Dave Armstrong (Post): More than just Reading between the lines (paywalled)
Herald Editorial: Tory Whanau’s Reading Cinema deal heartless in face of community cuts (paywalled)
Tom Hunt (Post): Leaked emails reveal new spat among Wellington City councillors (paywalled)
Tom Hunt (Post): How Wellington is getting its macron on (paywalled)
Emily Ireland (Local Democracy Reporting): Open workshops: Councillor suggests Ombudsman has 'God complex'
Shanti Mathias (Spinoff): A new member’s bill wants to stop landlords getting extra votes in local elections
Liam Hehir (The Blue Review): Only who can vote now? (paywalled)
Rachael Kelly (Southland Times): Luxon and Bell discuss Gore’s water woes and the way ahead
Hamish MacLean (ODT): ORC to consider 21.3% rates rise (paywalled)
RNZ: Tim Macindoe confirmed as Hamilton's East ward councillor

PRIMARY INDUSTRIES
Monique Steele (RNZ): Rollout of cameras on fishing boats under review
Adam Burns (RNZ): Forestry needs rethink, residents say after Port Hills fire
Riley Kennedy (BusinessDesk): Pāmu reports $3m half-year profit, blaming weak milk, lamb prices (paywalled)
Herald: Pāmu Farms takes hit from dairy slump, Cyclone Gabrielle

BUSINESS
Aimee Shaw (Post): Supermarket whistleblower tool touted as potential gamechanger (paywalled)
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Labour hire firm in liquidation, Immigration NZ helping staff
Nona Pelletier (RNZ): Contact Energy warns of much higher power bills from 2025
Ian Llewellyn (BusinessDesk): Contact Energy thinks it knows where power prices are going
Tom Pullar-Strecker (Post): Consumers will benefit from smelter deal, says Contact Energy (paywalled)
Tom Pullar-Strecker (Post): Deal to keep Tiwai smelter open is ‘likely’, says Contact Energy (paywalled)
Sally Rae (ODT): Tiwai smelter likely to stay: Contact
NBR: Tiwai talks ‘constructive’, says Contact (paywalled)

EDUCATION
John Gerritsen (RNZ): NZ universities facing a 'liquidity crisis' - briefing
Richard Harman (Politik): Why Massey is broke (paywalled)
Gianina Schwanecke (Post): Tertiary Education Commission triples contractor spending in just 10 years (paywalled)
Farah Hancock (RNZ): What parents are actually required to pay schools
John Gerritsen (RNZ): Classes easily putting in an hour a day of reading, writing and maths - principals
David Hill (Listener): Why we shouldn’t dismiss the “bottom-feeders” in today’s schools(paywalled)
Francesca Rudkin (Newstalk ZB): The truancy issue is more nuanced than headlines suggest
Fox Meyer (Spinoff): What happens when your student flat activities end up in the news?
Vaughan Elder (ODT): Mystery surrounds university council vice-chancellor meeting (paywalled)

HOUSING, PROPERTY INDUSTRY
Marty Sharpe (Stuff): Homeless tents taken by council before Art Deco event
Eleanor West (Spinoff): Why demolishing character homes would be better for the environment, actually
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Where the housing downturn hit hardest
Erin Gourey (Post): House sales off to a sluggish start in 2024 - CoreLogic
Molly Swift (Newshub): House sales off to 'sluggish' start but could bounce back - CoreLogic
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Do ‘renters need to face reality’?
Susan Edmunds (Stuff): Property investors say insurance driving rent increases
Rob Stock (Post): Higher premiums coming for disaster-prone homes: IAG
David Hargreaves (Interest): New DTI rules looking like no sweat for home buyers
Anne Gibson (Herald): Property Insider: Heartbreak from The Ridge apartment purchase; Ockham boss has four-letter word for market; Goodman suffers $485m devaluation; Deloitte fit out done (paywalled)

HEALTH
Ruth Hill (RNZ): St John pulls ambulances off road due to deficit, staffing
Ruth Hill (RNZ): Patient safety advocate 'horrified' at government's plans to drop Therapeutic Products Act
Joseph Los’e (Herald): Scrapping Māori Health Authority to be heard by Waitangi Tribunal
Rowan Quinn (RNZ): Te Whatu Ora data leak: Vaccinators feel under threat
Rowan Quinn (RNZ): Thousands of NZ nurses register to work in Australia
Phil Pennington (RNZ): U-turn in key private health provider's take on shareholder models
RNZ: Covid-19 update: 6312 new cases, 14 deaths

FOREIGN AFFAIRS, TRADE
Robert Patman (The Conversation): Moving closer to Australia is in New Zealand’s strategic interest – joining AUKUS is not
Sam Sachdeva (Newsroom): Government downplays autonomous sanctions work
Bridie Witton (Stuff): Christopher Luxon: ‘We do not want Israel to enter Rafah’
RNZ: Vladimir Putin responsible for Alexei Navalny's death, Christopher Luxon says
RNZ: Alexei Navalny 'a fierce advocate of freedom and anti-corruption' - Christopher Luxon
Dita De Boni (NBR): Law to usher in EU-NZ FTA favours Euro producers, expert says

STATS NZ
RNZ: New Zealand's birth rate falls to lowest since World War II
1News: Number of births, deaths in 2023 released by Stats NZ
Eva Corlett (Guardian): New Zealand’s fertility rate hits record low as births fall

CORRECTIONS
George Block (Herald): Auckland prison death: Family’s fight for answers as body camera footage emerges of pepper spray incident
Catrin Owen (Herald): A family’s fight for answers after son died at Mt Eden Prison

OTHER
Gavin Ellis: Politicians must get the message: Journalism is facing an extinction event
Jonathan Milne (Newsroom): Treasury asks for economic plan to pay for climate crisis
Brendon McMahon (Local Democracy ReportING): Sea level rise ‘still an hypothesis’
Felix Walton (RNZ): Whakaari White Island: WorkSafe may have cast its net too wide, legal expert says
Gray Gibson (Newshub): Veterans Minister Chris Penk open to another public holiday for Defence Force
Heather Roy (Post): Be careful about which laws you wish for (paywalled)
Terry Baucher (Interest): The CSI Inland Revenue edition – how Inland Revenue’s enhanced capabilities enable it to detect fraud
Chris Keall (Herald): Confirmation of payee - ‘a simple step that will stamp out bank scams’ gets a step closer. Maybe
Soumya Bhamidipati (RNZ): Oranga Tamariki staffer accused of indecent behaviour still working at agency
Matt Williams, John Kerr and Mathew Marques (The Conversation): Out of the rabbit hole: new research shows people can change their minds about conspiracy theories
Robert MacCullocb: Ardern in the USA: Harvard's Kennedy School should be using her as a Case Study of the Dangers of Charisma