NZ Politics Daily – 1 February 2024
Top “NZ Politics Daily” stories today
Below are some of the more interesting and insightful New Zealand politics items from the last 24 hours.
1) Are the major changes that the new Government is making on smoking laws due to the influence of tobacco vested interests? Many public health professionals think so, and they’re putting together the evidence. Today, three University of Otago health academics have published their research on links between Government politicians – especially what they have been saying in public – and tobacco lobbyists – see: Tobacco industry interference: Is the new Government meeting its international obligations?
2) The three parties of government are being challenged to be transparent about their linkages with the tobacco industry, especially in terms of receiving funding and advice. This is outlined today in the Herald’s top story by Isaac Davison – see: Ministers asked to disclose tobacco industry links as smoke-free repeal again takes centre stage in Parliament
The article also reports: “Under questioning in Parliament on Tuesday, Luxon said he was not aware of any ministers receiving donations from anyone associated with the tobacco industry. He added he expected all ministers would comply with their obligations to report potential conflicts.”
3) The Government also came under scrutiny in Parliament yesterday, with questions about tobacco donations to the PM from Opposition leader Chris Hipkins asking: “Can [the Prime Minister] assure this House that no person affiliated with the tobacco industry was involved in developing or writing those party policy documents that were given to officials?” Luxon responded that he wasn’t aware of any ministers receiving donations from anyone associated with the tobacco industry – see Giles Dexter’s Public health experts call for government ministers' transparency on any tobacco industry links
4) The Prime Minister has been challenged further on the financial linkages between his government and tobacco interests when he appeared on The AM Show yesterday. Co-host Melissa Chan-Green grilled Luxon about “whether he plans to ask his ministers whether there is any potential conflict” – see William Hewett’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says he's not aware of any minister receiving donations from tobacco lobby groups after grilling by Hipkins
Luxon explained: “There's a couple of things at play. One is we have a really good declaration, a high-quality declaration regime here in New Zealand for party political donations and that's a good chance for donations to be declared… Secondly, all cabinet ministers have to comply with the Cabinet Manual and frankly, at every cabinet meeting, we also ask every cabinet minister to declare up front if there are any conflicts. That's a process that I've put in place since running Cabinet meetings.”
5) Potential conflicts of interest between NZ First and the fishing industry continue to be scrutinised, especially as Shane Jones has been appointed as Minister of Fisheries, and is now significantly shifting the country’s stance on sustainable fishing towards one that suits the industry. Newsroom’s Andrew Bevin reports today that: “The fishing industry has helped bankroll Shane Jones' election campaigns; now he says he'll protect their revenues” – see: Jones to ‘make NZ jobs No 1’, to dismay of ocean allies
This all relates to New Zealand’s role in deep-sea conservation issues, as New Zealand is the only country in the South Pacific to still be carrying out bottom trawling in the area. The last government had proposed new tight regulations on such activity, but the new government is currently doing a U-turn on that at the current South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation annual meeting.
Former Prime Minister Helen Clark is quoted in the article saying that the move would be a major mistake for international relations: “A few tonnes of export seafood is not worth a fraction of the price New Zealand will pay for abandoning Pacific multilateralism, dragging down the performance of a Commission which it helped establish, and setting a precedent for disregarding international agreements which could be followed by others at great risk to the entire region.”
Jones is also quoted defending his pro-industry directives: “The guts of the matter is we’re a new government and we’re taking stock of what are the long term implications for the continual shrinkage of available fishing opportunity in this areas… This time around as the Fisheries Minister I’m keen to ensure that number one, we’re looking after our own people, looking after jobs and opportunities for economic development to benefit New Zealand.”
The article points to the various financial linkages between Jones’ party and fisheries, and how this raises questions about whether he can credibly hold the fisheries role: “That close relationship with industry was enough for the 2017 Labour-led coalition to block Jones or other NZ First MPs from taking the fisheries portfolio in government.”
6) For more on my own arguments about the problems of conflicts of interest, declining integrity in politics, and creeping corruption in New Zealand, see my column yesterday, Luxon needs to raise standards in the Beehive
7) The integrity of the public service continues to be under scrutiny, especially in terms of the political neutrality that is expected. And the current government’s suspicious that the public service is biased against them will be further embedded by news that the activist that stood up at Ratana last week and condemned the Deputy Prime Minister and Shane Jones “taurekareka” – slaves for the Crown – was actually a senior public servant in Statistic NZ. For more on the “partnerships and engagement lead adviser Māori” see Moana Ellis’ Stats NZ adviser Nika Rua in firing line for ‘potential conflict of interest’ as Rātana speaker
8) Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters are in Melbourne to meet with Australian counterparts. Observers are speculating that they are bringing New Zealand more into line with Australia and US defence alliances, and possibly laying the groundwork to join the second pillar of the Aukus military weapons buyup. The Post’s international relations specialist Thomas Manch examines how the new government is shifting foreign policy, asking: If Australia is America's sheriff, could NZ be its constable? (paywalled)
He says that the new administration is continuing the shift away from good relations with China and towards the US instead. Meanwhile, the Labour Party is recalibrating in Opposition and is now wanting a more independent foreign policy, and spokesperson David Parker is now saying: “We think its important to not to position China as a foe.”
9) RNZ reveals today that there has been much greater movement towards joining up to Aukus under the last government than had previously been admitted – see Phil Pennington’s NZ defence officials began pitching the benefits of joining AUKUS months ago – documents
Pennington also reports that Defence Minister Judith Collins has been telling Australian media that New Zealand is keen on Aukus, saying “We are interested in being involved in Pillar 2. It's not a secret” and that New Zealand had to play its part and “not be a freeloader” on Australian defence spending.
10) Former National PM Bill English has spoken out against Act’s Treaty Principles Bill, and praised Luxon for his clarity in saying National will vote it down. On Act’s proposed referendum, he says: “Everyone knows that creating some sort of binary choice through a referendum is exactly the wrong way to deal with generational issues which need nuance, compromise, change” – see Audrey Young’s Ex-NZ Prime Minister Bill English on Treaty of Waitangi anxiety, rangatiratanga, partnership (paywalled)
However, English also acknowledges that the public has been left out of the evolving interpretation of Treaty issues: “It’s important through all of this to remember that it is not just Māori and the Crown who are participants. It’s the public, who are often forgotten but have a capacity, particularly through the ballot box, to express a view… We don’t have a fixed constitution so in the end it operates by political consent. A bit of the lesson from the last Government is you don’t want to get too far away from that political consent.”
11) The Treaty views of another former National PM, Jenny Shipley, are also discussed today by Richard Harman, who says: “Shipley spoke at the Kotahitanga Hui a Motu in Ngauruwahia a fortnight ago and has become a strong supporter of the movement and its call for Mana Motuhake. She is also a supporter of moves in her home town, Russell, to change its name back to Kororareka” – see: The Nats’ new liberals (paywalled)
The National Party caucus is becoming more liberal according to Harman, who writes today about their new MPs: “Anyone watching or listening to this week’s 12 maiden speeches from new National MPs might wonder what has happened to their party… We saw glimmers of the centrist-liberal wing of the National Party once more back in Parliament.”
One example is new MP Greg Fleming: “He said that for the past two years, I’ve worked with friends to establish a tertiary language immersion school. Te Wānanga Ihorangi will welcome its first 40 students this February, and his son Toby will be one of them.” And Harman concludes: “The MPs who think along these lines are still a minority within the National caucus, but what they represent is a potential handbrake on the possibly extreme positions of both ACT and NZ First.
12) National’s alliance with NZ First is already falling into potholes according to the Herald’s Claire Trevett, who looks at how the Police Minister has been hauled back into line when he started deviating from his coalition agreement that specified that 500 more police would be recruited within two years – see: Coalition government hits first pothole as Police Minister Mark Mitchell takes the fall for NZ First police numbers palaver (paywalled)
Trevett says it’s not a big deal for the coalition relationship though: “National is perhaps lucky that this was the early test. No long-lasting harm seems to have been done to the coalition relationship, largely because Luxon was quick to side with NZ First and Mitchell was quick to take the blame for it.”
13) Newstalk’s Heather du Plessis-Allan expresses another view, suggesting that it was National’s Police Minister who was in the right – see: Mark Mitchell was thrown under the bus today
14) The Wellington City Council is dominated by Green and Labour aligned politicians, but it’s suddenly seeming much more rightwing than even the current National-led Government, proposing all sorts of cutbacks that the political left would normally be protesting in the streets about. The Post’s Erin Gourley reports on the latest suggested austerity measures, including asset sales, and big cuts to services such as libraries, swimming pools, and other public infrastructure – see: Council gets out the axe to fund the pipes (paywalled)
15) The charges against former Green MP Golriz Ghahraman have now been made public – see: Lane Nichols’ Golriz Ghahraman court documents reveal value of stolen goods, first appearance pushed back
Here are the key details: “She is charged with stealing $695 worth of clothing from Wellington’s CRE8IVEWORX store on October 22. The charge carries a maximum penalty of one year in prison. She is also charged with stealing $2060 of clothing from Scotties Boutique in Ponsonby on December 21. The charge carries a maximum penalty of seven years in prison. Finally, she is charged with stealing $7223 worth of clothing from Scotties Boutique on December 23. The charge also carries a maximum sentence of seven years in prison. The total value of items she is alleged to have shoplifted is $9978.
16) Chloe Swarbrick looks likely to announce her bid for the Greens’ co-leadership today according to Newstalk’s Jenna Lynch reports that we are likely to hear about Swarbrick’s decision today – see: Chlöe Swarbrick presents unique chance for Green Party as Labour's Chris Hipkins risks political irrelevancy
Lynch praises Swarbrick’s skills but says that her ascension to the leadership will be a major problem for the Labour Party: “Hipkins is talking but no one is listening, meaning he risks the ultimate in political crises: irrelevance - leaving the Opposition yearning for a fresh voice. In the past, both former Greens co-leader Russell Norman and ACT's David Seymour found themselves in a kind of de facto Opposition leader role while the major parties, on their respective sides of the aisle, were tearing themselves to shreds. While Labour isn't showing any signs of that yet, with Hipkins failing to command attention, Swarbrick has a similar opportunity to shine”.
17) A similar point is made today in The Post by Ben Thomas, who says that Swarbrick will be a powerful new leader, and has some similarities with James Shaw in her “middle-class acceptability” – see: The Greens’ Swarbrick no-brainer is a headache for Labour (paywalled)
But here’s his main point, about how the Greens under Swarbrick will squeeze the Labour Party: “Swarbrick is factory-ready to step into the role of ‘unofficial leader of the opposition’, as a media-friendly go-to, and leading the charge in Parliament: a role her frequent nemesis, David Seymour, occupied during much of the previous term. Labour has no obvious leadership prospect to replace Chris Hipkins, who showed some fire towards the end of last year’s campaign but never really threatened as prime minister to set out a vision for the country or even his party, and is simply not as compelling a speaker or cultural figure as Swarbrick.”
18) For an interesting discussion on “whether the Greens are headed for oblivion” under a new co-leader, see Thomas Coughlan’s James Shaw’s departure won’t wreck the Greens (paywalled)
He outlines the theory that “The party will go left, go woke, and then go down”, saying “the Greens, without their token white chap in a suit, will shed the high income urban voters who like bushwalks, but are less keen on the wealth tax that might ensnare their Grey Lynn villa, or what the party thinks about Palestine”.
In contrast, Coughlan believes the urban middle classes are going to keep voting Green in large numbers, especially those squeezed by declining home ownership rates: “Unlike Labour and National, the Greens are not trying to find a middle ground between the home-owning middle classes and younger people locked out of the housing market. About a third of households don’t own their own homes, which is a fertile pond of available votes for the Greens… Labour and National will always need to modulate their housing policies to accommodate the majority of households that still do own their own homes, and fear things like intensification. The Greens, frankly, couldn’t care less – and New Zealand’s considerable population of renters appear to like that, and the challenge it poses to our contemporary Christatorship.”
Dr Bryce Edwards
Political Analyst in Residence, Democracy Project, School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington
NZ Politics Daily – 1 February 2024
FOREIGN AFFAIRS, DEFENCE
Phil Pennington (RNZ): NZ defence officials began pitching the benefits of joining AUKUS months ago - documents
RNZ: Possible AUKUS membership: NZ 'working through' what it can bring to alliance
Thomas Manch (Post): If Australia is America's sheriff, could NZ be its constable?
Thomas Coughaln (Herald): Aukus on the agenda, as Winston Peters and Judith Collins try to charm Australia (paywalled)
1News: Peters, Collins to navigate AUKUS and China in Australia talks
Amelia Wade (Newshub): Judith Collins, Winston Peters head to Australia for meeting with foreign, defence counterparts
RNZ: New Zealand could continue UN Gaza aid if 'rotten apples' dealt with - Peters
Sam Sachdeva (Newsroom): Sparks fly over Red Sea deployment
William Hewett (Newshub): Prime Minister Christopher Luxon confirms NZDF will have increased Budget
Herald: The Front Page: Why NZSAS and the Defence Force are struggling and what it will take to fix
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